CB Leading Index

An index that is a composite average of ten leading indicators in the US. It one of the key elements in the Conference Board's analytic system, which is designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Since it is an average, the leading index smooths out some of the volatility of individual components, thereby revealing turning points in the economic data more convincingly than any individual component. Generally known as the leading economic index (LEI). 



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Components of the CB leading index include average weekly manufacturing hours, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and non-defense capital goods, building permits and stock prices. Other components are indexes of supplier deliveries and consumer expectations, M2 money supply and the interest rate spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and federal funds.